We publish below a thesis on Europe by the International Secretariat of the CWI, which was agreed in late November 2018. 

[Note: the thesis was completed before the eruption of the ‘yellow vest’ mass protests in France, which are reported on and analysed elsewhere]

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.THESIS ON EUROPE 2018

1. Capitalism in Europe in marked by a growing class, political and social polarization with the possibility of mass movements breaking out anywhere. This is reflected in general by the turmoil and decline of the traditional parties of capitalism and the former workers’ parties with the exception as yet of the Labour Party in Britain, the Socialist Party in Portugal and some other countries. In general a new political era of instability and upheaval is unfolding throughout the EU and Europe. As we have commented in previous material this contains elements of revolution and also of counter revolution.
2. Despite the absence of a generalized movement of the working class in the recent period the situation facing capitalism remains politically and socially convulsive. However, sizeable trade union protests have taken place in Belgium, France and Austria. In some countries we have seen some very important social movements such as the successful Repeal referendum in Ireland in which our Irish comrades played a very important role and the strikes of female and male youth called by the Sindicato de Estudiantes in the Spanish State against sexual violence and harassment.
3. The EU itself facing growing internal conflict and tension of both an economic and geo-political character. Despite the continuing growth of the German economy the overall Eurozone growth rate has slumped to its lowest level in four years. France, the second largest Eurozone economy has seen its annual growth rate slip from 1.7% to 1.5%. Even in those countries like Germany which have witnessed an economic growth it has not resulted in an erosion of poverty or a rise in living standards for the vast majority. In Germany 1 in 5 now have “mini-jobs” – marginal employment which pays less than 450 euros per month- on top of their regular employment. There has been a continuing growth in precarious employment.
4. The claims of the ruling class in the Spanish State of an economic recovery belie the deteriorating social situation. According the EU reports youth unemployment remains at 33.8%! In reality it is probably higher.
5. Throughout Europe there is a devastating gap between rich and poor. Austerity and cuts have had a catastrophic impact on big layers of the population in most countries while the super-rich have grown even richer. There is a generalized housing crisis in all the major cities of Europe which is particularly devastating in effects for the young. Even in Germany, despite the economic “growth” almost one in five of the German population is now threatened by poverty or social exclusion! In other countries of southern Europe and Britain the situation is even worse with hunger, homelessness and stagnation in life expectancy and the prospect of a future fall.
6. The gap between the “rich north” and the “poor south” in the Eurozone has deepened and is aggravating the tensions and conflict. In the EU as a whole the gap between the west and the east has not been closed at all. The idea of “all boats rising together” and establishing equality has been shattered. According to the IMF the GDP per capita in Germany jumped 19% between 2010 and 2016. It rose by 14% in France and the Netherlands. Yet in southern Europe it grew much more slowly. In Italy it rose by 6%, in Portugal by 10% and in Greece it fell by 7%.
7. The EU and the Eurozone are facing growing tensions and crisis. BREXIT has been the sharpest reflection of this. Yet as one capitalist commentator argued “Brexit is just a sideshow for an EU mired in crisis” (Daniel Boffey Observer 4/11/18). The outcome of Brexit still remains uncertain.
8. It is not in the interests of the decisive sections of the British ruling class or the EU for Britain to crash out of the EU. It remains most likely that some agreement of a “soft Brexit” will be reached however this is not a certainty. Yet BREXIT is not the only crisis facing the ruling classes of Europe. The conflict between Italy and the EU now threatens the continued existence of the euro as we have previously warned. Italy, in the same article quoted above, “is in meltdown”.  With borrowing at 131% of GDP, second only to Greece, and the economy experiencing zero growth, the right-wing populist led government has presented the budget which breaks the EU budget spending limits bringing it into direct conflict with the EU which is now demanding a reduced budget.
9. The hypocrisy of the two dominant powers in the EU, Germany and France, is again revealed as they have previously, because of their economic and political power, broken these rules without sanction. The crisis in Italy has the potential to provoke an even bigger crisis in the EU and Eurozone than the Greek drama did. The seriousness of the situation of the situation was underlined by France’s Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, who has warned the future of the euro is now at stake. It is possible that the Italian government will try and secure some compromise deal although this is far from certain.
10. Other important aspects of conflicts between the EU powers are also being played out as we have previously commented. Macron’s proposals for an accelerated political and financial integration of the Eurozone have been frustrated by Merkel and German imperialism. Even Macrons proposals for a bank rescue deal have been frustrated by Germany’s more cautious approach who are opposed to “bailing out the rest of Europe” in the event of new crisis.
11. At the same time the EU is facing increasing conflicts and clashes to its east with Poland and Hungary and the right-wing populist governments which rule them today and also growing tensions with Russia. There are major changes taking place in many countries of Eastern Europe. It is now nearly thirty years since the collapse of the former Stalinist regimes. Vicious right-wing populist authoritarian governments have come to power in Hungary, Poland and some other countries following the crisis in 2007/8. Although starting on a very low political level we have also seen significant movements against corruption, gangster capitalist regimes. In January a mass protest rocked Romania resulting in the downfall of the third Prime Minister in a year. In March 2018 the Slovakian Prime Minister was forced out due to mass protests. Lithuania has witnessed mass protests as have other countries. Although at an early stage in terms of political consciousness these movements are extremely significant. They are reflected in the emergence of small but potentially significant new left groups like Razem in Poland and Radnicka Fronta in Croatia
12. Added to these crisis in the EU is the threat of the eruption of clashes over trade with the US. All of these strains and clashes are a pointer to the likelihood of the break-up or re-configuration of the Eurozone and possibly the EU itself at a certain stage.
13. As the CWI anticipated these developments have underlined, that despite the process of globalization and integration of the world economy and degree of integration of the capitalist states which took place in the EU and Eurozone, capitalism has not been able to totally over-come the limits of the nation state. In the current era of renewed capitalist crisis powerful centrifugal tendencies have partially reversed the tendencies to integration which took place in the period immediately following the collapse of the former Stalinist regimes.
14. The far right populist parties which have gained momentum and support in Europe in the recent period have used this crisis in the EU to whip up nationalism and racism. It is important that the CWI confronts this politically on the basis of opposing the capitalist EU but stressing the need for the working peoples of Europe to come together and struggle for a democratic, voluntary socialist confederation of the Europe as an alternative.
15. Since the last IEC in 2017 there has been an intensification of the European political crisis. This is reflected in an historic erosion of the base of support of the traditional capitalist parties. The crisis facing the conservative Party in Britain and the CDU/CSU in Germany, and what develop in Italy, are amongst the most acute reflection of this. The collapse of the former traditional capitalist parties in France led to the ruling class in effect relaunching a new capitalist force around Macron’s “La République en marche” (LREM -Republic on the Move).
16. The striking feature now is the crisis facing the 3 Ms – Macron, May and Merkel. Merkel, suffered a big rebuff in the German general election in September 2017. This was similar to that inflicted on May in the British general election. Since then her decline has continued. Recent polls gave the CDU/CSU only 27% support. Now, after a collapse in support in the recent elections in both Bavaria and Hesse, she has been forced to announce she will not seek re-election in 2021. There is a big question mark if she will be able to stagger on until then. These developments signify a major change in the political and social situation in Germany.
17. Similarly, Macron in France, has seen support for the LREM, fall to a mere 19% whilst his own approval rating have fallen to 28%. While there have been important battles by the railway workers on a national scale the role of the trade union bureaucracy has ensured that this movement did not develop into a generalized struggle against the government. The government was able to score a partial victory but at a cost to Macron whose support fell below that the previous “socialist” President Hollande had at the same stage of his Presidency.  While strikes amongst other sections of workers have continued these have been isolated and more fragmented at this stage.
18. May, whose hated government has stumbled from crisis to crisis, each of which in previous historical era would have seen her government come crashing down. She has clung to power by her finger tips due to the fear of the right-wing Tories moving against her and triggering an election which they could lose resulting in a Corbyn led government coming to power.
19. At the same time the weakness of Corbyn in not seriously launching a mass campaign to force a general election has also allowed her to cling on. However, so explosive is the situation that she could be forced from office and an election could be called at any time.
20. The undermining of the social base of the traditional parties of the ruling class has been a major feature of this era and is extremely dangerous for the ruling class in the medium term. It has been mirrored by an even more devastating collapse in support for the former workers parties with the exception of the Labour Party in Britain and the Socialist Party in Portugal and some other countries. There is an historic and possibly terminal decline for these parties and reflects how far they had swung to the right and accepted neo-liberal policies and capitalism. The electoral slaughter of PASOK in Greece was repeated in France and the devastating defeat of Hollande and the Socialist Party in 2016.
21. This process has been repeated across Europe. In Germany the SPD is showing support at a mere 14%. In a desperate bid to try and shore up their dwindling base there is pressure to break from the coalition with the CDU which would weaken the government further and possibly trigger fresh elections. In Sweden the Social Democrats had their worst election result since 1908 winning just 28.3% of the vote. The Swedish ruling class has still not been able to get a government formed. The difficulty in forming government coalitions after elections has now become a common feature in Europe reflecting the political instability which exists. There has and will be a tendency towards increased parliamentary Bonapartist methods of rule.
22. As a result of the decline of the traditional parties a massive vacuum has opened up in a series of countries. In many countries the far right populist and nationalist parties have been able to step in. The growth of the far right populist forces is a potentially very dangerous development given the unstable character of these parties which are not reliable representatives of the interests of the ruling class. The growth of these parties has partly been a consequence of the weakness and failure of the new left formations to offer an alternative.
23. In some countries new left forces did emerge and initially won a large basis of support. We should not forget that in Greece the mass movement and revolt of the Greek workers and youth against austerity and the betrayal of PASOK paved the way for SYRIZA to win for a period mass electoral support. It was the betrayal of Tsipras and the SYRIZA government which has now resulted in the collapse in SYRIZA’s support and the possibility that even New Democracy – which is now ahead in the polls- will be returned to power.
24. In Spain, the revolt of the ‘Indignados’ and mass movement against austerity gave rise to the emergence of PODEMOS. In Portugal the “Left Bloc” has passed through a series of ebbs and flows in its support. In Britain it was expressed in the election of Corbyn as Labour leader and a sizeable growth in Labour membership.
25. However, all of these formations in different ways have shown their incapacity to offer a fighting socialist alternative. As the crisis has deepened at different conjunctures these formations have been exposed as failing to offer an alternative and have been compromised. This reflects the extremely limited programme of these organisations and leaderships which at this stage are not even comparable to the left reformists and centrists of the 1970s and 1980s. They often defend a programme which is formally to the right of the former bourgeois workers’ parties and the old left reformists. The programme defended by many of the ‘new left’ in reality is little different to the programme and policies advocated by the old right-wing reformists in the past. The new left is in some respects the old right! Even the old right-wing reformist referenced eventually arriving at a socialist society in the dim and distant future. Most of the ‘new left’ fail to even do this.
26. Yet, to the new generation, the policies advocated by the new left has seemed extremely radical even ‘revolutionary’. This is a measure of the relatively low level of political consciousness compared to the 1970s and 1980s in many countries.
27. The betrayal of PODEMOS during the revolutionary events in Catalonia was a clear reflection of the weakness of these forces. Now, PODEMOS has taken this a step further by seeking out an agreement with the new pro-capitalist PSOE government. The same is true of the leadership of the “Left Block” in Portugal which has moved ever closer in propping up the Socialist Party government on a rotten basis. These are a warning for a Corbyn led government in Britain.
28. In Britain, the “revolution” in the Labour Party has reached an impasse as the Corbynistas have continued to seek peace with the Blairistas and right-wing and refused to act against them by introducing a compulsory system of automatic reselection of Labour MPs on a regular basis. The “revolution” is bogged down in the swamp of appeasement of the capitalist right in the party.   As a result the right-wing still dominates the parliamentary party. A block of which may even take the step of propping up May over securing a deal over Brexit. A wing of the ruling class is urging the Blairistas to remain in the Labour Party to sabotage Corby in the event of him winning an election. At the same time the political weakness of the Cobynistas is revealed in all the main cities as they justify Labour councils carrying out brutal cuts because “they have no alternative” and will not adopt a no cuts budget strategy. We are compelled to constantly oppose them. At local level in some areas we will stand against the right-wing Labour councilors who are implementing vicious cuts.
29. The programme of the new left formations has amounted to proposing a “reformed” capitalism which is “more humane”. It is a relatively moderate centre left Keynsian utopian policy aimed at taking Europe back to the golden era of post 1945 capitalism. Yet despite this the ruling class fears a Corbyn led government or some other new left formations coming to power in other countries. However, in some countries were the new left formations have demonstrated their reliability for capitalism sections of the ruling class are becoming more open to allowing them into government to defend the interests of capitalism.
30. Capitalism is so precarious and after 30 years of neo-liberalism even a relatively limited programme which opposes neo-liberalism but remains within capitalism appears extremely radical. The ruling class opposes even the limited reform programme advocated by the new left. They also fear that these parties and leaders will not be reliable props for capitalism. Under intense pressure of mass social movements and upheavals the ruling-class, fear that they may be pushed in a more radical direction and be compelled to strike blows against the interests of capitalism.
31. As we have commented before the limited nature of the new left parties reflects in part the petty bourgeois and mixed class character of most of the forces involved in them. While some, like PODEMOS, attracted a layer of workers, especially electorally, in the main these forces have reflected a radicalised layer of sections of the petty bourgeois who were affected by the 2007/8 crisis and who have begun to embrace some methods of the working class in struggle. These new left forces have not been directly based on powerful movements of the working class into their ranks. They also reflect the still relatively low level of political consciousness compared to the 1970s and 1980s and how far temporarily expectations have been lowered.
32. Despite the political and social crisis which has opened up in Germany Die Linke has failed to capitalize on this in a serious way with recent polls giving it approximately 10/11%. Much of the former SPD vote has gone to the Greens which have increased to approximately 19%. Despite a small growth in membership recently, mainly of young people, this is a condemnation of the leadership of Die Linke and its failure to offer a real alternative and build roots amongst the working class. The growth in support amongst the Greens is a reflection of a petty bourgeois and youth layer searching for what appears to be a more radical alternative to the pro-capitalist stance of the SPD.
33. The collapse of the French Socialist Party has been mirrored by the rise of the Melenchons’ France Insoumise (FI). Like the other new left formations, this has many of the features of a ‘movement’ rather than a political party. This has been a common feature of many of the new left formations. Die Linke has been one of the exceptions to this in terms of party structure. However, sections of the right-wing leadership are raising the specter of forming a new broad radical but not anti-capitalist movement including sections of the Greens, the SPD and others. It would assume some of the character of PODEMOS. In Belgium the PDT has continued to make some electoral advances but with a limited reformist programme but with many of the organizational characteristics more akin to a Stalinist party from which it emanated. At local level it has sought opportunistically to “appear responsible” and tried to reach agreement with the Socialist Parties and others.
34. Despite the weakness politically of the FI, Macron and the ruling class are now taking steps to strike blows at it by unleashing raids on the party offices allegedly to deal with a misuse of party funds from the EU. They clearly fear the potential for the FI to make further gains as support for Macron falls.
35. In Europe following the 2007/8 crisis there was a radicalization to the left and an explosion of struggle. However, it did not result in the emergence of a strong socialist consciousness. This was due to a number of factors most notably the lingering effects of the collapse of the Stalinist regimes and the ideological offensive against the idea of a planned economy and “socialism”. It was also due to the political weakness of the new left which acted as a break and did little to assist the new generation who had entered struggle drawing more far reaching socialist conclusions. These movements came up against the reality of capitalism and the determination of the ruling class to defend its interests and attack the working and middle classes.
36. The national question is an important issue in many parts of Europe including Catalonia, Scotland, Ireland, Cyprus, Macedonia/Greece and elsewhere. It is re-emerging as an issue between Austria and Italy and between Hungary and its neighbors and in some other countries as well. As we have explained in other material we stand for the democratic rights of all peoples including their right to independence should they demand it. Where appropriate to raise the demand for independence we link this to demand it on a socialist basis. We explain the need for the unity of all working people and the need for a struggle for independence to be linked with breaking with capitalism and establishing a socialist confederation of the relevant states. On a capitalist basis there is no solution to the national question in the modern era. This is one of the weaknesses of the new left forces which have emerged.
37. The betrayal of PODEMOS during the mass movement in Catalonia has opened the way for the new PSOE government to now announce more repressive measures against the leaders of the independence movement. This was despite the massive pro-independence rally in support of political prisoners which took place in Barcelona in September on ‘Diada’ – Catalan Independence day. This illustrates that the national question in Catalonia and elsewhere in the Spanish state remains unresolved as is inevitable on a capitalist basis.
38. The new left forces in general have a completely wrong approach towards the national question. Corbyn’s refusal to even support the right for a further referendum on independence for Scotland can result in Labour losing the next general election in Britain.
39. The vacuum which has opened up and the failure of the ‘new left’ to fill this with a real alternative has allowed the far right populist forces to step in. Playing on the real fears of the working class, sections of the middle class and some of the most down trodden layers in some countries it has played up racism in a populist manner as a means of winning support along with nationalism and a fake opposition to the “elite”. In Germany the AfD hovers around 16% in the polls. In France we have seen the RN (Rassemblement National) which succeeded the FN, overtaking Macron’s LREM, in voting intentions for the EU elections in May 2019. In Italy the Liga has also strengthened its support and the FPO in Austria has maintained its base. In Sweden, the racist Sweden Democrats got their highest vote ever in the Swedish general election and won over 17% of the vote. This has been echoed in other Nordic and Scandinavian countries. Even in the recent Irish presidential election the right populist, Peter Casey, managed to win 20% of the vote.
40. In Eastern Europe the issue of migration has been used by the far right. In many countries the influx of migrants fleeing the Ukraine has been whipped up and used to sow division. Between 2002 and 2017 an estimated 6.3 million Ukrainians emigrated from the Ukraine “with no plans to return” – many heading to eastern European countries like Poland and the Czech Republic. Where they have passed through the countries of Eastern Europe on their way to Western Europe the far right for example in Hungary have whipped this up.
41. The racist propaganda of the far right parties has also been taken up by some of the right-wing of the traditional capitalist parties such as in the German CDU and the British Tories.
42. This is a burning issue for the CWI and the working class. We need to raise demands and fight racism, defend the rights of migrants but also answers; with concrete demands on social issues, housing, education, for equal pay, trade union rights etc.; the genuine fears of workers and defend the idea of the unity of the working class.  While not underestimating the threat posed by these forces it is important that we also see they can have the effect of acting as the whip of counter revolution producing a back lash from other layers. The tremendous demonstration in Berlin of up to 250,000 against the far right, in which we had an effective intervention, was an illustration of this.
43. These developments in Europe, taken together with Trump in the US and now Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil have led to a layer to conclude that there is the prospect of ‘fascist’ regimes coming to power in the next period. It would be a mistake for us to ignore these fears especially amongst the inexperienced youth. However, the social base for mass fascist forces with the objective of crushing the organisations and democratic rights of the working class do not exist in the modern era. This of course does not mean that should these far right parties manage to come to power in some countries that they will not attempt to introduce extremely repressive measures. As we have seen fascistic forces and groups can exist and grow to an extent but as an auxiliary force. There is an element of this in Hungary at this stage. In Germany some of the smaller fascistic groups have been emboldened. The anti-racist and anti-far right struggles needs to assume one of the key aspects of our work, especially our youth work, in many European sections in the coming period.
44. The growth of the far right in some countries has reflected a certain impasse in the class struggle and the failure of the new left to build a solid base of support amongst the working class. In some countries it is based on the desperate situation which confronts sections of the working class and fear of the impact on social conditions arising from the migration crisis.
45. Yet the growth in support of the far right parties will bring its own contradictions and increasingly expose them. Divisions have and will open up amongst them. When in power, at local or national level their economic and social policies will be tested and exposed. The introduction by the FPO in Austria of a legal 12 hour working day which provoked a mass protest by workers is a reflection of this. The trade union leaders refused to call a strike on this issue despite polls indicating clear support for it.
46. Yet the massive social and political polarization which is developing across Europe and globally will not just melt away. It could be a semi- permanent feature of the situation which reflects the objective reality of capitalism today. The far right parties and racist moods and sentiments amongst a layer will inevitably ebb and flow but they will remain a factor in the situation until the working class builds powerful new mass parties that can put its decisive stamp on the situation and offer a socialist alternative.
47. A crucial element in our perspectives will be the impact the next recession/slump will have on the political outlook of the working class and the youth. 2007/8 led to a radicalization in the mood of a section of the youth and working class which began to question capitalism. However, this did not result in the development of a broad socialist consciousness. Despite the contradictions and complications which have developed in the situation it would be a big mistake for us to conclude that a renewed economic crisis will simply have the same effect on political outlook. Following the experience of the last decade, a new crisis, accompanied by big social and political upheavals can, with our intervention, lead to an even greater radicalization that previously and the crystallisation of a broader socialist consciousness. The CWI in many countries can play a decisive role in helping this process to develop.
48. In all countries the trade union bureaucracy has in the main acted as a massive break holding back workers’ movements. This has been a major factor in the recent period which has contributed to the absence of a powerful movement of the working class in Europe in the recent period. Despite the weakening of the traditional working class sectors in manufacturing and industry this layer does still exist. Powerful sections of workers are concentrated in transport, logistics and in some countries still in manufacturing. When these layers move into struggle they will have a decisive effect. In addition to these we have in many countries seen new layers of the working class in the process of formation sections of the former middle class beginning to take up the methods of struggle of the working class.
49. The small, embryonic but very significant initial movements have led to the MacStrike and strikes by precarious workers at Deliveroo, Weatherspoons, TGI Friday in Britain and Lloyds Chemists in Ireland. Similar struggles have taken place in France and Italy. These are a harbinger of how these layers can begin to move into struggle in the next period. More recently the global strike of Google tech workers in the US, Britain, Ireland, Netherlands, Spain and other countries against sexual harassment and racism was extremely significant. This is the first movement of the “new skilled working class” which potentially has immense economic power. Following this strike the first tentative steps at forming and reforming unions are now beginning to take place as has been the case in the airline industry.
50. The concrete situation in the trade unions is very different in each country and our exact tactics and orientation will need to take this into account. While in the private sector in many countries the level of trade union organisation has declined in most countries in the public sector it remains much stronger. However, it is extremely important that we recognize the important role of the trade unions for Marxists and the working class as whole even in sectors with currently low levels of organization. Without having a fetish about the official structures it is important that we avoid an ultra- left or sectarian approach on how we engage and raise our demands. At the same time where necessary we should be ready to go directly to the work places and where relevant argue for unofficial ad hoc groups and campaigns to be formed in opposition to the trade union bureaucracy but at the same time place demands on the official unions to take action.
51. This aspect of the work of our sections is of crucial importance for us to build a firm and solid basis amongst the working class.
52. The ruling classes of Europe are conscious of the prospects of mass social explosions by the working class in the coming period. One of the features of the recent period is the tendency for increased repression and more authoritarian methods of rule and policing to be adopted. This is certain to increase in the coming period. The question of defending basic democratic rights to organize, protest and strike is something we need to feature in our propaganda and demands. In addition to this the growing crisis in the environment, reflected in the heat wave and subsequent droughts in some countries will increasing emerge as an issue which can provoke big movements.
53. The general conclusion we need to draw from this analysis is that greater class divisions and social and political polarization is taking place. This is accompanied by a decline or even collapse for the traditional parties and instruments of rule by the capitalist class. The CWI needs to be prepared for further abrupt changes. New opportunities and prospects to build our parties will be posed. We need to be prepared for big struggles of the working class and other layers of society, especially the youth who face a disastrous situation on the basis of capitalism. To seize hold of the possibilities which will open up we will need to be ready to undertake bold and rapid changes in our tactics and interventions and struggle for our principled socialist programme with the aim of strengthening our base and support amongst all sections of the working class, youth and all those exploited by capitalism.